Saturday, March 22, 2008

beslissingsprocessen - lucked out in 1962



McNamara in a discussion with Castro in 1992 in which was revealed that there had been 162 Russian nuclear warheads on the island at the time of the crisis. McNamara asked Castro whether he knew this, and he replied that he had.

"Did you recommend that the Russians use them?" McNamara had asked.

"Yes, I did," Castro said."

"And what would have happened to Cuba?"

"It would have been totally destroyed."

And he said: “If You and Kennedy were in the same position, you would have done the same thing!”

Friday, March 21, 2008

privacyschending als beste van twee kwaden



Dr. Arre Zuurmond stelt dat privacy als grondrecht zijn oorsprong vindt in tijden dat mensen zich moesten beschermen tegen de staat.

In zijn commentaar in NRC van 20 maart voegt de positie van “ de burger” ten tijde van de Nachtwakersstaat moeiteloos bij die ten tijde van de koningen.

“ Dat was de tijd dat de burger zijn zelfstandigheid ten opzichte van de staat moest bevechten.”
Zuurmond stelt dat er tegenwoordig een spanning is tussen klassieke en sociale grondrechten.

Zijn betoog komt er kortweg op neer dat privacyrechten niet opportuun zijn in een verzorgingstaat. Misbruik moet immers worden voorkomen.

Ik voeg daar graag van Dun’s positie van de Burger als onderdeel van de staat aan toe.

Dan controleert de staat zichzelf.

Thursday, March 20, 2008

McNamara



Fog of War - Errol Morris  - Must See

http://www.sonyclassics.com/fogofwar/

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/fog_of_war/

The 11 McNamara lessons

1. Empathize with your enemy.
2. Rationality will not save us.
3. There's something beyond one's self.
4. Maximize efficiency.
5. Proportionality should be a guideline in war.
6. Get the data.
7. Belief and seeing are both often wrong.
8. Be prepared to reexamine your reasoning.
9. In order to do good, you may have to engage in evil.
10. Never say never.
11. You can't change human nature

http://www.alternativereel.com/conspiracy/Eleven_Lessons.php

additional ten lessons

1. The human race will not eliminate war in this century but we can reduce war, the level of killing, by adhering to the principles of a just war, in particular of proportionality.

2. The indefinite combinations of human fallibility and nuclear weapons will lead to the destruction of nations.

3. We are the most powerful nation in the world — economically, politically, and militarily — and we are likely to remain so for decades ahead. But we are not omniscient. If we cannot persuade other nations with similar interests and similar values of the merits of the proposed use of that power, we should not proceed unilaterally except in the unlikely requirement to defend the continental US, Alaska and Hawaii.

4. Moral principles are often ambiguous guides to foreign policy and defense policy, but surely we can agree that we should establish as a major goal of U.S. foreign policy and, indeed, of foreign policy across the globe : the avoidance in this century of the carnage — 160 million dead — caused by conflict in the 20th century.

5. We, the richest nation in the world, have failed in our responsibility to our own poor and to the disadvantaged across the world to help them advance their welfare in the most fundamental terms of nutrition, literacy, health, and employment.

6. Corporate executives must recognize there is no contradiction between a soft heart and a hard head. Of course, they have responsibilities to their employees, their customers and to society as a whole.

7. President Kennedy believed a primary responsibility of a president — indeed "the" primary responsibility of a president — is to keep the nation out of war, if at all possible.

8. War is a blunt instrument by which to settle disputes between or within nations, and economic sanctions are rarely effective. Therefore, we should build a system of jurisprudence based on the International Court — that the U.S. has refused to support — which would hold individuals responsible for crimes against humanity.

9. If we are to deal effectively with terrorists across the globe, we must develop a sense of empathy — I don't mean "sympathy" but rather "understanding" to counter their attacks on us and the Western World.

10. One of the greatest dangers we face today is the risk that terrorists will obtain access to weapons of mass destruction as a result of the breakdown of the Non-Proliferation Regime. We in the U.S. are contributing to that breakdown..

Sunday, March 16, 2008

mencken



Puritanism: The haunting fear that someone, somewhere, may be happy.

Of all escape mechanisms, death is the most efficient.

Truth would quickly cease to be stranger than fiction, once we got as used to it.

Explanations exist: they have existed for all times, for there is always an easy solution to every problem — neat, plausible and wrong.

Civilization, in fact, grows more and more maudlin and hysterical; especially under democracy it tends to degenerate into a mere combat of crazes; the whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary.
 
All government, in its essence, is a conspiracy against the superior man: its one permanent object is to oppress him and cripple him. If it be aristocratic in organization, then it seeks to protect the man who is superior only in law against the man who is superior in fact; if it be democratic, then it seeks to protect the man who is inferior in every way against both. One of its primary functions is to regiment men by force, to make them as much alike as possible and as dependent upon one another as possible, to search out and combat originality among them. All it can see in an original idea is potential change, and hence an invasion of its prerogatives. The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out for himself, without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane and intolerable, and so, if he is romantic, he tries to change it. And even if he is not romantic personally he is very apt to spread discontent among those who are.

Off goes the head of the king, and tyranny gives way to freedom. The change seems abysmal. Then, bit by bit, the face of freedom hardens, and by and by it is the old face of tyranny. Then another cycle, and another. But under the play of all these opposites there is something fundamental and permanent — the basic delusion that men may be governed and yet be free.

It is the dull man who is always sure, and the sure man who is always dull. 

To sum up: 1. The cosmos is a gigantic fly-wheel making 10,000 revolutions a minute. 2. Man is a sick fly taking a dizzy ride on it. 3. Religion is the theory that the wheel was designed and set spinning to give him the ride.

If, after I depart this vale, you ever remember me and have thought to please my ghost, forgive some sinner and wink your eye at some homely girl.

To be happy one must be (a) well fed, unhounded by sordid cares, at ease in Zion, (b) full of comfortable feeling of superiority to the masses of one's fellow men, and (c) delicately and unceasingly amused according to one's taste. It is my contention that, if this definition be accepted, there is no country in the world wherein a man constituted as I am — a man of my peculiar weakness, vanities, appetites, and aversions — can be so happy as he can be in the United States.

The fact is that the average man's love of liberty is nine-tenths imaginary, exactly like his love of sense, justice and truth. He is not actually happy when free; he is uncomfortable, a bit alarmed, and intolerably lonely. Liberty is not a thing for the great masses of men. It is the exclusive possession of a small and disreputable minority, like knowledge, courage and honor. It takes a special sort of man to understand and enjoy liberty — and he is usually an outlaw in democratic societies.

The difference between a moral man and a man of honor is that the latter regrets a discreditable act, even when it has worked and he has not been caught.

The basic fact about human existence is not that it is a tragedy, but that it is a bore. It is not so much a war as an endless standing in line...   

When A annoys or injures B on the pretense of saving or improving X, A is a scoundrel.

Public opinion, in its raw state, gushes out in the immemorial form of the mob's fear. It is piped into central factories, and there it is flavoured and coloured and put into cans. 

Poverty is a soft pedal upon the branches of human activity, not excepting the spiritual.

Time is the great legalizer, even in the field of morals.

The public...demands certainties...But there are no certainties. 

To be in love is merely to be in a state of perpetual anesthesia — to mistake an ordinary young man for a Greek god or an ordinary young woman for a goddess.

Nine times out of ten, in the arts as in life, there is actually no truth to be discovered; there is only error to be exposed.

Injustice is relatively easy to bear; what stings is justice.

The older I grow the more I distrust the familiar doctrine that age brings wisdom.

Faith may be defined briefly as an illogical belief in the occurrence of the improbable.

A man full of faith is simply one who has lost (or never had) the capacity for clear and realistic thought. He is not a mere ass; he is actually ill. Worse, he is incurable, for disappointment, being essentially an objective phenomenon, cannot permanently affect his subjective infirmity. His faith takes on the virulence of a chronic infection. What he usually says, in substance, is this: "Let us trust in God, who has always fooled us in the past".  

The most costly of all follies is to believe passionately in the palpably not true. It is the chief occupation of mankind.

Conscience is the inner voice that warns us somebody may be looking.

Immorality is the morality of those who are having a better time. You will never convince the average farmer's mare that the late Maud S. was not dreadfully immoral.

An idealist is one who, on noticing that roses smell better than a cabbage, concludes that it will also make better soup.

Platitude — An idea (a) that is admitted to be true by everyone, and (b) that is not true.

Remorse — Regret that one waited so long to do it.

Self-respect — The secure feeling that no one, as yet, is suspicious.

Truth — Something somehow discreditable to someone.

We are here and it is now: further than that, all human knowledge is moonshine.

Historian — An unsuccessful novelist.

Christian
— One who is willing to serve three Gods, but draws the line at one wife.

The New Deal began, like the Salvation Army, by promising to save humanity. It ended, again like the Salvation Army, by running flop-houses and disturbing the peace.

Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.

Democracy is the art of running the circus from the monkey cage. 

Judge — A law student who marks his own examination-papers.

Jury — A group of twelve men who, having lied to the judge about their hearing, health and business engagements, have failed to fool him.

Lawyer — One who protects us against robbers by taking away the temptation.

Jealousy is the theory that some other fellow has just as little taste.

Wealth — Any income that is at least $100 more a year than the income of one's wife's sister's husband.

Misogynist — A man who hates women as much as women hate one another.

A man may be a fool and not know it — but not if he is married.

Bachelors know more about women than married men. If they didn't they'd be married, too.

Every decent man is ashamed of the government he lives under.

Theology — An effort to explain the unknowable by putting it into terms of the not worth knowing.

Sunday — A day given over by Americans to wishing that they themselves were dead and in Heaven, and that their neighbors were dead and in Hell.

A newspaper is a device for making the ignorant more ignorant and the crazy crazier.

Conscience is a mother-in-law whose visit never ends.

Q: If you find so much that is unworthy of reverence in the United States, then why do you live here?  A: Why do men go to zoos?

We must respect the other fellow's religion, but only in the sense and to the extent that we respect his theory that his wife is beautiful and his children smart.

I have often argued that a poet more than thirty years old is simply an overgrown child. I begin to suspect that there may be some truth in it.

My guess is that well over eighty per cent of the human race goes through life without ever having a single original thought. That is to say, they never think anything that has not been thought before, and by thousands. 

Human life is basically a comedy. Even its tragedies often seem comic to the spectator, and not infrequently they actually have comic touches to the victim. Happiness probably consists largely in the capacity to detect and relish them. A man who can laugh, if only at himself, is never really miserable.

No government is ever really in favor of so-called civil rights. It always tries to whittle them down. They are preserved under all governments, insofar as they survive at all, by special classes of fanatics, often highly dubious.

God is the immemorial refuge of the incompetent, the helpless, the miserable. They find not only sanctuary in His arms, but also a kind of superiority, soothing to their macerated egos: He will set them above their betters.

Equality before the law is probably forever inattainable. It is a noble ideal, but it can never be realized, for what men value in this world is not rights but privileges.

There are people who read too much: the bibliobibuli. I know some who are constantly drunk on books, as other men are drunk on whiskey or religion. They wander through this most diverting and stimulating of worlds in a haze, seeing nothing and hearing nothing.

It is impossible to imagine the universe run by a wise, just and omnipotent God, but it is quite easy to imagine it run by a board of gods. If such a board actually exists it operates precisely like the board of a corporation that is losing money.

Why assume so glibly that the God who presumably created the universe is still running it? It is certainly perfectly conceivable that He may have finished it and then turned it over to lesser gods to operate. In the same way many human institutions are turned over to grossly inferior men. This is true, for example, of most universities, and of all great newspapers.

A cynic is a man who, when he smells flowers, looks around for a coffin.

A politician is an animal which can sit on a fence and yet keep both ears to the ground. 

Capitalism undoubtedly has certain boils and blotches upon it, but has it as many as government? Has it as many as marriage? Has it as many as religion? I doubt it. It is the only basic institution of modern man that shows any genuine health and vigor.

Demagogue: One who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots.

Democracy is also a form of worship. It is the worship of Jackals by Jackasses.

Democracy
is the pathetic belief in the wisdom of collective ignorance.

Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.

Firmness in decision is often merely a form of stupidity. It indicates an inability to think the same thing out twice.

Imagine the Creator as a low comedian, and at once the world becomes explicable.

It is hard to believe that a man is telling the truth when you know that you would lie if you were in his place.

It is inaccurate to say I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office.

It is often argued that religion is valuable because it makes men good, but even if this were true it would not be a proof that religion is true. That would be an extension of pragmatism beyond endurance. Santa Claus makes children good in precisely the same way, and yet no one would argue seriously that the fact proves his existence. The defense of religion is full of such logical imbecilities.

It is the fundamental theory of all the more recent American law...that the average citizen is half-witted, and hence not to be trusted to either his own devices or his own thoughts.
Liberals have many tails and chase them all.

Life may not be exactly pleasant, but it is at least not dull. Heave yourself into Hell today, and you may miss, tomorrow or next day, another Scopes trial, or another War to End War, or perchance a rich and buxom widow with all her first husband's clothes. There are always more Hardings hatching. I advocate hanging on as long as possible.

Life without sex might be safer but it would be unbearably dull.

Love is the delusion that one woman differs from another.

Love is the triumph of imagination over intelligence.

Marriage is a wonderful institution, but who would want to live in an institution.

Men become civilized, not in proportion to their willingness to believe, but in proportion to their readiness to doubt.

No government, of its own motion, will increase its own weakness, for that would mean to acquiesce in its own destruction ... governments, whatever their pretensions otherwise, try to preserve themselves by holding the individual down ... Government itself, indeed, may be reasonably defined as a conspiracy against him. Its one permanent aim, whatever its form, is to hobble him sufficiently to maintain itself.

No one ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public.

No one in this world, so far as I know — and I have researched the records for years, and employed agents to help me — has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.

Of all the classes of men, I dislike most those who make their livings by talking — actors, clergymen, politicians, pedagogues, and so on. All of them participate in the shallow false pretenses of the actor who is their archetype. It is almost impossible to imagine a talker who sticks to the facts. Carried away by the sound of his own voice and the applause of the groundlings, he makes inevitably the jump from logic to mere rhetoric.

One seldom discovers a true believer that is worth knowing.

Philosophy consists very largely of one philosopher arguing that all other philosophers are jackasses. He usually proves it, and I should add that he also usually proves that he is one himself.

Religion deserves no more respect than a pile of garbage.

Say what you will about the Ten Commandments, you must always come back to the pleasant fact that there are only ten of them.

School teachers, taking them by and large, are probably the most ignorant and stupid class of men in the whole group of mental workers.

Sunday School
: A prison in which children do penance for the evil conscience of their parents. 

The believing mind is externally impervious to evidence. The most that can be accomplished with it is to induce it to substitute one delusion for another. It rejects all overt evidence as wicked...

The Christian church, in its attitude toward science, shows the mind of a more or less enlightened man of the Thirteenth Century. It no longer believes that the earth is flat, but it is still convinced that prayer can cure after medicine fails.

The essence of science is that it is always willing to abandon a given idea for a better one; the essence of theology is that it holds its truths to be eternal and immutable. To be sure, theology is always yielding a little to the progress of knowledge, and only a Holy Roller in the mountains of Tennessee would dare to preach today what the popes preached in the thirteenth century.
The essential dilemma of education is to be found in the fact that the sort of man (or woman) who knows a given subject sufficiently well to teach it is usually unwilling to do so.

The fact that I have no remedy for all the sorrows of the world is no reason for my accepting yours. It simply supports the strong probability that yours is a fake.

The more a man dreams, the less he believes.

The trouble with Communism is the Communists, just as the trouble with Christianity is the Christians. 

The world always makes the assumption that the exposure of an error is identical with the discovery of the truth — that error and truth are simply opposite. They are nothing of the sort. What the world turns to, when it has been cured of one error, is usually simply another error, and maybe one worse than the first one.

Those who can — do. Those who can't — teach.

'Tis more blessed to give than to receive; for example, wedding presents.

Under democracy one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule — and both commonly succeed, and are right... The United States has never developed an aristocracy really disinterested or an intelligentsia really intelligent. Its history is simply a record of vacillations between two gangs of frauds.

When the government is robbed, the worst that happens is that certain rogues and loafers have less money to play with than they had before.

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

+ 31 derde stijger OESO gevangenispopulatie




http://www.npdata.be/Data/Gevangenis/ICPS/Gevangenen-OESO-Europa.xls

Ronald van Hasselt

in negen sec.

rotterdam - amsterdam via utrecht



in 21 min 32 seconden

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

onderweg



zonder kenteken, zonder rijbewijs - snelheid tussen 260 en 340 km/h -  een zweed die goed oplet - zoals vogels dat doen voor de poes -

Monday, March 10, 2008

controllers in een vrije maatschappij



reactie op bijdrage ControlersMagazine dhr Vahl - "Toine Manders Anarcho Fiscalist" 

Vanmorgen minder gelachen bij het ontbijt. Ik pijnigde mijn hersens met de vraag welk syndroom de heer Vahl lijdt.

Lijdt mijnheer aan het stockholm-syndroom, waarbij het gegijzelde zich meer en meer positief gaat identificeren met de gijzelnemer, of lijdt hij aan het klassieke prisoners syndrome, waarbij de patiënt de gegeven (negatieve situatie) irrationeel blijft verdedigen.

Juist in het vakgebied van de controller is de staat een “derde” partij die niets kwalitatiefs bijdraagt en uitsluiten dwingend compliance maatregelen op weet te leggen.

Ik zou mijnheer willen vragen eens een gedachteoefening te willen doen met het stellen van de vraag wat het voor zijn vakgebied zou betekenen als de staat zich zou terugtrekken.

Wat mij betreft zou dit in beginsel het verschil betekenen tussen een primaire focus op de inzet van gegevens ter verantwoording en de primaire inzet van gegevens ter optimalisering van bedrijfsprocessen.

Verantwoording zou dan een gezondere secundaire of tertiaire positie in gaan nemen.

Financiële professionals hebben in een vrije maatschappij een leuker leven mijnheer Vahl!

Sunday, March 9, 2008

de staat als rechtspersoon




Aanhangers van de belastingthese zoals Wouter Bos of Flip de Kam blijven stellen dat niet zozeer de staat wordt benadeeld als mensen belasting ontwijken of ontduiken, maar dat andere belastingplichtigen worden benadeeld.

Ze gaan uit van de onuitgesproken stelling dat de staat nu eenmaal inkomsten nodig heeft om haar uitgaven te dekken. Het huishoudboekje moet immers kloppen.

Flip de Kam ging dit weekeinde heel ver. Hij rekende zijn lezer voor hoeveel de belastingen omlaag kunnen als alle verwegen inkomsten werden opgegeven.

Ik zwijg verder over de kwaliteit van de hypothese. Alsof dit een mogelijke reactie van ambtenaren zou kunnen zijn.

Belangrijker is dat 1. volgens deze redenering allereerst niet de inkomsten maatgevend zijn voor het kloppend krijgen van het huishoudboekje, maar de uitgaven. En 2. dat die uigaven worden gedaan ten gunste van “de burger”.

De overheid als een soort godgegeven instelling van boven ons gestelden die kan bepalen wat zij nodig heeft.

Gezonder is het de staat te beschouwen als de rechtspersoon die ze feitelijk is. Een rechtspersoon met haar eigen doelstellingen. En dat die doelstellingen niet noodzakelijk samenvallen met die van het individu.

Een dergelijke principiële beoordeling zou de staat niet overleven.

Ze zou als rechtspersoon tussen anderen verantwoording moeten afleggen over de waarde die toevoegt aan het leven van andere rechtspersonen. Ze zou die waarde bovendien VOORAF moeten verantwoorden. Zoals ieder mens en ieder bedrijf dat doet.

Ze zou het risico moeten nemen dat anderen afzien van de deal en met een ander in zee gaan.
Voorts moet ze zich blootstellen aan dezelfde rechtsregels als ieder andere rechtspersoon. Mannen met pistolen langsturen om onwillige klanten te dwingen is er dan niet meer bij.

husaberg




blok gekanteld - cylinder in "70 grad winkel" - beweging dichter bij het zwaartepunt - beweegt dus minder "tegen" - lichter -

Friday, March 7, 2008


"Alles onder Controle"  van Bart de Koning - isbn 978 90 501

must read voor een ieder die nog altijd de reactie: "ik heb niets te verbergen" weet te produceren.

in de lucht




 terug in de lucht...